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Judgment drill

Deal Screening Challenge

Walk an investment committee memo loop. Review a teaser, score quality, set capital structure, respond to a shock, and decide: advance, reprice, or pass.

Educational decision practice only. All targets are fictional. Not a recommendation on any real company or live transaction.

  1. 11
  2. 22
  3. 33
  4. 44
  5. 55
  6. 66

Pick a fictional teaser on the left. All companies are educational constructs.

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Educational IC practice. Not a recommendation on any real company.

Worked example: reprice rather than stretch

A fictional vertical software target, screened with round numbers. Figures are in millions.

Assumptions

EBITDA
25
Seller ask
11.0x
Comparable multiples
10.0x
Leverage offered
5.5x
FCF conversion
60% of EBITDA
Shock
Top customer renewal at risk
  1. 1

    Ask versus comps

    25 x 11.0 = 275 versus 25 x 10.0 = 250, one turn of stretch

  2. 2

    Debt at the ask

    25 x 5.5 = 138 debt, equity 275 - 138 = 137

  3. 3

    Cash available

    25 x 60% = 15 per year before the shock

  4. 4

    Shock case

    EBITDA down 10% to 22.5, cash to 13.5, leverage rises to 6.1x

  5. 5

    Decision

    Reprice to 10.0x and 5.0x debt: equity 125, leverage 5.6x in the shock case

The asset stays interesting, the price does not. Repricing one turn and taking half a turn of leverage out keeps headroom through the shock, which is the answer the IC is testing for.

Method

Deal screening is where PE judgment starts. This drill compresses teaser review, quality scoring, capital structure choice, diligence prioritization, and an IC vote into one coherent loop.

Scoring rewards coherent underwriting: quality scores that track the teaser, leverage that fits cash flow quality, a bid that respects fair value, diligence asks that would change the vote, and an IC decision that matches the risk event.

  1. 1. Read the teaser for earnings quality

    Separate recurring, high-conversion earnings from story growth before scoring anything.

  2. 2. Score quality and set leverage

    Scale debt to cash flow predictability so a customer or payor shock still leaves headroom.

  3. 3. Set a bid that respects fair value

    Anchor the bid to comparable multiples so the case does not depend on multiple expansion.

  4. 4. Prioritize diligence that could change the vote

    Spend requests on the two or three questions that would actually flip the decision.

  5. 5. Vote after the shock

    Advance, reprice, or pass based on the updated risk and return, not the original thesis.

Strong screeners separate quality of earnings from story quality. Recurring software with concentration risk is not the same as a cash-converting distributor with cyclical volume. Leverage should scale with predictability: sticky cash flows can support more debt, but only if you still have room when a customer or payor shock arrives. Bid posture is the second filter. Stretching entry multiples leaves little room for multiple compression later. When a shock hits mid-process, the IC call should update the underwriting, not defend the original thesis by default. Reprice when the asset remains interesting at a lower entry. Pass when the risk changes the risk-return shape too far. Use this drill to rehearse that judgment loop, then practice full lifecycle consequences in the Super Simulator.

FAQ

Ready for the full deal room

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Educational decision practice only. All targets are fictional. Not a recommendation on any real company or live transaction.